Predictive Testing of Opportunities

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A new innovation service from Inovo predicts if an opportunity will be successful (or not) with an accuracy of over twice what you now achieve. Predictive Testing of Opportunities (PTO), combines the Business Model Simulation™ technology of Inovo’s partner, Growth Science, with the innovation assessment, research and analysis tools of Inovo to bring you a capability that can greatly enhance the effectiveness of your front-end innovation efforts.

PTO  is a service that predicts whether an opportunity you are now developing (or thinking about developing) will be successful and, if it is predicted to fail, the reasons why. In addition, PTO estimates the expected growth rate of an opportunity and provides an in depth analysis of the competitive, organizational, market and technology factors that determine success or failure. The results of the PTO assessment help companies decide if they should abandon the opportunity, shape the opportunity in ways that will make it more successful or pursue the opportunity with every available resource.

The opportunity you choose to predictively test can be anything from an early stage concept to something that is about to launch. It can be a product, service, or new business model. It can be B2B or B2C. It can be for any industry or market and can use any technology. It doesn’t matter. PTO can predict if the opportunity will be successful with approximately 67% accuracy – over twice the accuracy that research has shown companies achieve today using a variety of other methods.

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Our Partner - Growth Science

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The PTO service uses the Business Model Simulation™ (BMS) system developed by Growth Science. BMS has proven accurate on thousands of actual products and services introduced by a wide variety of companies over the past 20 years. It is currently being used by dozens of Fortune 500 companies and by Hambrecht Ventures, the top rated VC fund for the past 10 years, to evaluate every deal they make.

Growth Science was founded in 2008 to provide a home for the  research and development of the analytics engine developed by Thomas Thurston based on research he started in 2006 when Thomas was working for Intel and started investigating their growth investments to discern patterns that could predict business survival or failure. After Intel, Thomas went to work with Clayton Christensen at Harvard to pursue his research and further develop the algorithms that are the basis for the current system.

The Growth Science Analytics Engine has been tested and validated on over 3,500 documented predictions and has Guided >$2B investments by Fortune 500 firms. More information on Growth Science, Thomas Thurston and the Business Model Simulation system and technology can be found on their web-site.


How it Works

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Selection of the opportunity and gathering of data
This is done in collaboration with the company using assessment tools that Inovo provides (e.g. Opportunity Readiness Model, Should-Could Scorecard)

Running the Business Model Simulation™
Creating the input and running the simulation using the Growth Science analytics simulation

Analysis and additional research
Creating a 10 – 12 slide report for each opportunity based on the results of the simulation and independent research done by Inovo.

Working session to discuss and shape the opportunity
A physical or virtual workshop to go over the PTO assessment and shape the opportunity so that (if possible) it turns from failure to success and has a higher growth potential.



PTO Services Offered by Inovo

Pilot Project
Get a full assessment of three (3) opportunities (including workshop) for $50,000. An inexpensive way for a company to prove the accuracy and value of the PTO assessment.

Discovery Project
Incorporate PTO assessments into a front-end opportunity discovery project. The opportunities that come out of discovery are run through the PTO assessment for validation.

Portfolio Assessment
Take a fresh look at your portfolio, especially the Horizon 3 opportunities, to see if your portfolio will deliver the return you think it will.

Ongoing PTO Use
For companies that want to do a few PTO assessments on a regular basis, a cost effective way to access the service.

Bulk Assessments
When you have a large number (>10 or so) of assessments to do all at once.

Custom Plans
We can design a custom plan to fit your company’s needs.

Contact Us to Find Out More About These Services

PTO Inquiry

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